Growth will again be driven by household consumption and investment. While the benefits of the 2016 reduction in income tax will fade, household consumption will be stimulated by the increase in employment. Women, older people and refugees make up an increasing proportion of the active population. Business investment looks set to grow more slowly because of uncertainty linked, in particular, to the German elections, the incoming US administration, the changing level of the euro and shifts in monetary policy. However, the resilience of consumption and the need to replace worn-out equipment and facilities will shore it up. House building should continue to grow because of the need to house refugees and continuing low interest rates. Exports of industrial equipment, construction machinery, vehicles and automotive parts (these three categories account for 40% of total exports), chemical products and food products, but also tourism, engineering, and IT and financial services should benefit from the downward trend in the real effective exchange rate and the relative improvement of the economic situation in several large emerging countries. The future of the US market, which in 2016 become Austria's second largest export market, and the EU economy (70% of sales), particularly Germany, will be crucial. As imports grow on the back of domestic demand, foreign trade will probably again make a slightly negative contribution to growth.

After being loosened in 2016 with the income tax reduction, budget policy will likely be put back on the path towards an equivalent deficit of 0.5% by 2020. The positive effect on receipts made by the increase in capital gains tax should outweigh the additional financial burden of integrating refugees. The sale of assets purchased from struggling financial institutions by public "bad banks" should result in reduced debt. From 2017, the country's European commitments will oblige it to make annual savings equivalent to 1.25% of GDP in order to bring its debt back down to the 60% threshold over a period of twenty years. Savings in the areas of retirement and health insurance (gradual rise in the effective retirement age, tightening of disability pensions criteria) will be limited. The commitment of the Länder and numerous (small) municipalities (1/3 of public spending) might be disappointing given that they derive most of their resources from federal taxation. However, subsidies, in particular in transport, which amount to 4% of GDP, are a potential source of savings. Consolidation is conditional on the assumption that the bank rescue episode, which accounts for one quarter of debt, ended with the restructuring in October 2016 of the debt of HETA, the public structure that took on the commitments of Hypo Alpe Adrian after its bankruptcy. The situation of Austrian banks, whose assets in central and Eastern Europe amount to 57% of GDP, has much improved. Against the backdrop of an economic upturn, their activity in central and eastern Europe is again profitable overall, especially in the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia, where they have major presences and where local deposits now exceed their outstanding credit. Budgetary consolidation is the main area of agreement between the social democrats of the SPÖ and the conservatives of the ÖVP in the grand coalition that has been in power since 2013. However, the parties do not agree on how to go about it: the former favor tax rises while the latter prefer spending reductions. In this context, it is by no means certain that the government will make it to the scheduled end of its term in 2018. Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) or the conservatives may ask the President to hold early elections. The population seems weary of the shared domination of the two traditional main parties, and a November 2016 opinion poll put the far-right FPÖ Freedom Party in front, ahead of the SPÖ and, in a distant third, the ÖVP. However, Alexander Van der Bellen, who is close to the greens, prevailed in the second round of the presidential elections in December 2016.

The current account surplus reveals a solid and significant surplus in services (3% of GDP in 2015) and a slight surplus in goods (0.4%). The income balance is in deficit (1.5%), which can be explained by the repatriation of dividends by foreign investors and remittances by foreign workers. Since the crisis, businesses have faced a decline in their productivity, while their salary costs have risen more rapidly, suggesting a fall in their price competitiveness. For the moment, their technological progress, the closeness to Germany, the low cost of energy and credit, and the depreciation of the euro are protecting them. Payment practices remain good. However, the number of bankruptcies, having fallen to low levels, might rise slightly in 2016. This rise might be concentrated in traditionally fragile sectors, such as metals, publishing, paper, transport and construction.