After exceptional performance in 2015 following a surge in public investment due to the need to use the remaining funds available under the European funding program, which was reaching maturity, growth returned to a pace in line with potential in 2016. In 2017, household demand will remain buoyant, carried by the dynamism of the job market and wages, the availability of abundant and cheap credit, as well as the introduction of family benefits aimed at boosting the birth rate. With 2017 being an election year, fiscal largesse cannot be ruled out. External demand will benefit from robust consumption and German exports, as well as from the healthy state of the European automotive market on which the country greatly depends. Because of the large share of exports in the Czech economy, this will impact positively on jobs and household demand. However, if the lower limit on the koruna against the euro, in force since November 2013 is abandoned, the resulting appreciation could lead to slower exports and faster import growth, which would reduce trade's contribution to growth. Automotive, which accounts for 28% of industrial production, 20% of exports of goods and 10% of GDP, are expected to continue to prosper. As for construction, it is expected to benefit from the return to normal regarding European funding, which will generate an average annual surplus of 2% of GDP until 2022.

In two years (2013-2014) of austerity, the Czech government has restored its public finances. The fiscal deficit fell below 1%. Despite a slight easing expected in 2017 (increase in civil service salaries and pensions, recruitment of more teachers …), no doubt linked to the holding of elections in 2017, the position will remain satisfactory. The debt burden, already moderate, will continue to fall. Despite the influx of foreign capital, attracted by the prospect of an appreciation of the koruna, 75% will still be held by local investors. This success explains why 80% is denominated in koruna and issued at negative rates on short maturities.

The trade balance runs a structural surplus (4.7% of GDP in 2015) thanks to the strong integration of Czech industry into the European production chain, especially that of Germany, and automotive. Engineering, household appliances and electrical equipment also make a positive contribution. Services generate a small surplus (1.7%) thanks to tourism. The income deficit (5.5%) is explained by the considerable stock of FDIs. Together these factors make for a slight current account surplus, which could be affected by a fall in the trade surplus. The potential for it to deteriorate is, however limited, as a drop in exports would be accompanied by a drop in imports and dividend repatriations. Moreover, European funds and foreign capital would easily help cover any deterioration. Despite its significant level (70.7% of GDP), the external debt presents a low risk. It is now stable and is in large part composed of intragroup commitments, loans linked to FDIs, short-term commercial loans and deposits made by foreign banks with their local subsidiaries (87% of bank assets), which by their nature are fairly fixed. Allowing for these commitments, the external debt level is only 37.5%.

The electoral law, which includes a high element of proportional representation, means there is no clear majority, forcing the formation of multi-party coalition governments. But, despite frequent disagreement within government, Parliament generally sits for the full term, if need be, thanks to the formation of a technocratic government. This is because 3/5 of the votes are needed to ask the President to dissolve the Chamber. Furthermore, the Communist Party, traditionally the third political force in the country, is systematically excluded from the national coalitions. Accordingly, following the corruption scandals which tainted the previous center-right majority, the early parliamentary elections of October 2013 brought to power a coalition dominated by the Social Democratic Party (CSSD) and the centrist anti-corruption party, the ANO 2011, with the office of prime minister and deputy prime minister in charge of finance being held by their respective leaders: Bohuslav Sobotka and Andrej Babis, a media magnate with significant assets in the chemical and food industries too. Despite the tensions over differences on fiscal policy, the timetable for adopting the euro, the acceptance of refugees, Andrej Babis's conflicts of interest and the ANO's victory in the October 2016 regional elections, the coalition is expected to last until the elections in October 2017.