After slowing, growth is expected to return to a moderate pace in 2017. Public investment will pick up, after falling in 2016 because of the gap between two European funding programmes. Transport infrastructure will again be the big winner. Private investment will not be lacking with credit levels potentially stabilising after 6 years of decline, provided the worries over Russia subside. Household consumption will continue to be the main driver, sustained by a moderate increase in employment and higher wages prompted by the shortage of labour resulting from the emigration of young, skilled workers, as well as from the inadequacy of higher education and vocational training to meet needs. The minimum wage is expected to rise again, with GDP per capita equal to 60% of the EU-15 average. Exports, particularly foodstuffs (19% of exports), timber and furniture (17%), telephones and screens will benefit from favourable economic conditions on their principal markets, namely the other Baltic States (31%), Scandinavia (12%), Poland and Germany. However, exports to Russia (still 7% of exports in 2015, transhipping excluded, despite declining by 25% compared with 2014), and also to the other CIS countries (5%), could fall further as a result of continuing Russian counter-sanctions and the adverse economic conditions in those countries. Despite being redirected towards other destinations, sales of dairy products, fish and beverages have been particularly hard hit. Sales of timber to the United Kingdom could suffer from the depreciation of sterling. Meanwhile, because of the erratic operation of the only steel mill, Liepajas Metalurgs, because of movements in steel prices, exports of steel products will remain irregular. International road and rail transport, as well as warehousing will depend on their use by Russia which wants to foster its own ports to the detriment of Latvian ports.