Growth is moderate and expected to be slightly lower 2017. Household consumption will confirm its role as the primary contributor, and will be sustained by a steady rise in employment, which could reach 400,000 new jobs, especially in social services and health. Many of the jobs will be filled by people from the European Union and, to a smaller extent, by those from countries in crisis, as well as by more women and older people, compensating for the natural demographic deficit. Despite the probable return of modest inflation, real disposable incomes will grow as wages rise due to the shortage of skilled labor, a rise in the minimum wage and an increase in basic and child tax allowances. Public consumption will slow with a drop in the number of refugees taken in, but public investment in social housing and infrastructure will continue. The construction of private homes will continue to grow strongly. In contrast, business investment in equipment and buildings will pick up very gradually, despite the high rate of production capacity utilization, against a background of uncertainties over Brexit and sluggish exports (automobiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, optical instruments, machinery, electronics, electrical equipment, agricultural machines). These sectors face challenges from the convalescent emerging markets (23% of outlets excluding China), sluggish Chinese investment (6%) and European demand (60%), as well as uncertainties regarding North America (10%). Given the much stronger import growth connected with lively domestic demand and the stabilization of trade terms, trade's contribution to growth will at best be nil. In this environment, German businesses' payment behavior will remain generally good. The number of insolvencies will fall by 5.6% (after a drop of 5.4% in 2016), but the businesses at risk (and their liabilities) will be bigger. Some sectors will continue to be riskier than average: agriculture, slaughterhouses, electricity providers, metallurgy, publishing, construction, food and domestic appliances retail, and distance selling.