Growth is expected to remain modest in 2017. The contribution of external trade will shift from positive to nil. Exports, (82% of GDP), consisting to a large extent of intermediate products, machines and transport equipment, will be subject to another increase in the real, effective exchange rate, associated with the depreciation of UK sterling while the unit cost of labor is edging up. While they will benefit from the modest advance in growth in the neighboring countries, the UK market is likely to be less buoyant. Tourism income will struggle to return to pre-terrorist attack levels. With stronger domestic demand, imports will pick up somewhat. Private employment growth, sustained by the prospect of lower social security contributions (2018), together with the indexing of wages to inflation (reintroduced in April 2016), is expected to accelerate private consumption. Given its large share of GDP (52%), its contribution to growth will be similar to that of investment. Business investment will continue to be buoyed by accessible, cheap credit, as well as a high capacity utilization rate. Construction will be sustained by local authority infrastructure spending, especially on housing and schools.

The level of public debt exceeds GDP, which is reflected in an interest burden equivalent to more than 2% of GDP, despite low interest rates. The authorities want to both bring down the cost of the debt by cutting the overall deficit and, as a priority, transfer levies on labor to consumption. Their goal is to achieve structural equilibrium (i.e. excluding cyclical effects) in 2018, based on fiscal economies amounting to 2.7% of GDP. They have chosen to limit the cut to be made in 2017 to 0.7% and to postpone the main measures until 2018, which seems challenging. In 2017, action will mainly be taken on spending by means of reform of the health system, cuts to current public expenditure and subsidies. The rest of the restructuring will come from raising tax on investment income from 27% to 30%.

Although not turning into a deficit, as between 2008 and 2014, the trade in goods surplus could decline. The main cause will be the downturn in UK demand affected by sterling's depreciation and uncertainty over the future. Moreover, whereas in 2014 and 2015, labor costs rose less than did labor productivity putting an end to a decade of loss of competitiveness and market share, especially on European markets, the process seemed to have reversed in 2016. Services will remain in surplus thanks to IT, telecommunications, royalties, transport and wholesale trade. Because of its location at the heart of Europe and with its ports providing easy access to its markets, Belgium plays a major role in the re-export of goods destined for or arriving from its neighbors. Substantial investments held abroad by Belgian interests generate considerable income, which offsets transfers by foreign workers and the net contribution to the European budget. Finally, the current account balance is in surplus.

Since October 2014, the country has been governed by a center-right coalition dominated by the Flemish Parties made up of the conservative Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (N-VA, New Flemish Alliance), the leading party in Flanders and at federal level, the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams (CD&V, Christian Democratic and Flemish) and the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten (open VLD, Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats) and led by Prime Minister Charles Michel from the French-speaking Mouvement réformateur (Reformist Movement). The socialist party, the main French-speaking political force, is in opposition. So as not to upset its partners and the majority of the population, the N-VA has toned down its wish to abolish the Brussels-Capital region and marginalize the federal state, which retains, in addition to its sovereign powers, most social spending, including pensions and health spending i.e. about half of public spending as well as financial oversight, competition, collection of the main taxes and the mechanism for index-linking incomes. The government is focusing on the economy, specifically on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms aimed at making business more competitive again, such as making working time more flexible and reducing employer contributions (30%), process expected to resume in 2018. This does not exclude disagreements, for example over the proposal to introduce a tax on capital gains, which are currently tax-exempt. In this context, the number of insolvencies should continue to fall.