Having slowed in 2014 and 2015 because of the drop in commodity prices and political instability, growth picked up in 2016. In 2017, the recovery will continue, driven by a resumption of investment (blocked during the democratic transition) especially in the mining sector, with increased gold production and higher cotton prices. After a record output of 40 tons of gold in 2016, production is projected to increase further in 2017, as the start of operations at new mines in 2016 and 2017 are expected to increase production. Moreover, reform of the mining code and stabilization of the political situation are expected to favor an acceleration in FDI flows. After three years of substantial decline, the price of gold recovered in 2016 and is expected to stabilize in 2017, such that it is able to maintain the contribution of the gold sector to growth. Likewise, the slight recovery in the price of cotton, the second most important source of export income, and a 2016/2017 harvest which promises greater yields, will help boost the acceleration in growth. Cotton production is projected to increase despite the decision within the industry, dissatisfied with the quality of the fiber, to abandon GMO cotton cultivation, which had reached 80% of the total crop during the 2014/2015 season. Higher private investment is expected to sustain private consumption, which should encourage job creation. Demographic trends and spending under the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES) 2016-2020 will also support growth. Nonetheless, the lack of infrastructure will still hamper activity, with the electricity supply, in particular, remaining an obstacle to more sustained growth. Inflation, which is still sensitive to food price fluctuations, and accordingly to weather conditions, is likely to edge up in 2017, bolstered by the pick-up in private consumption.

Having slowed in 2014 and 2015 because of the drop in commodity prices and political instability, growth picked up in 2016. In 2017, the recovery will continue, driven by a resumption of investment (blocked during the democratic transition) especially in the mining sector, with increased gold production and higher cotton prices. After a record output of 40 tons of gold in 2016, production is projected to increase further in 2017, as the start of operations at new mines in 2016 and 2017 are expected to increase production. Moreover, reform of the mining code and stabilization of the political situation are expected to favor an acceleration in FDI flows. After three years of substantial decline, the price of gold recovered in 2016 and is expected to stabilize in 2017, such that it is able to maintain the contribution of the gold sector to growth. Likewise, the slight recovery in the price of cotton, the second most important source of export income, and a 2016/2017 harvest which promises greater yields, will help boost the acceleration in growth. Cotton production is projected to increase despite the decision within the industry, dissatisfied with the quality of the fiber, to abandon GMO cotton cultivation, which had reached 80% of the total crop during the 2014/2015 season. Higher private investment is expected to sustain private consumption, which should encourage job creation. Demographic trends and spending under the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES) 2016-2020 will also support growth. Nonetheless, the lack of infrastructure will still hamper activity, with the electricity supply, in particular, remaining an obstacle to more sustained growth. Inflation, which is still sensitive to food price fluctuations, and accordingly to weather conditions, is likely to edge up in 2017, bolstered by the pick-up in private consumption.

The political scene was destabilized by the popular uprising in October 2014, which led to the fall of Blaise Compaoré after 27 years in power and was followed by the attempted military Coup d’Etat against the transitional government in September 2015. The election of Roch Marc Christian Kaboré with 53.5% of the votes cast in the presidential elections held in late 2015, which went off fairly smoothly and transparently, followed by the appointment of Paul Kaba Thiéba as Prime Minister brought stability to the political situation. Former right-hand adviser to Compaoré, Kaboré stepped down from office and from the leadership of the ruling Party for Democracy and Progress (CDP) to found his own party, the Movement of People for Progress (MPP) in January 2014, which, eighteen months later, won a relative majority in the National Assembly. Hit by poverty, unemployment and corruption in an environment offering limited economic possibilities, political and social stability will remain precarious in 2017, while supporters of Compaoré will be on the lookout for a false move by the elected government. Poor-quality infrastructure (transport, electricity, justice, health, education) makes for a difficult business climate (146th out of 190 according to the World Bank's Doing Business Report 2016). Regional security will also be a challenge for the country, which was the victim of an Islamist attack on a hotel in Ouagadougou leaving 28 dead in January 2016. The threat from Islamist groups in the Sahel is an obstacle to overall current prospects of political stability and investment.