In 2017, the rate of growth could increase slightly but will remain moderate. Domestic demand will continue to make the biggest contribution and remain at the same level. Despite the negative impact of the reduction in net immigration, household consumption should pick up slightly with the upturn in employment and the return of wage rises. Companies will complete their efforts to restore their margins that suffered with the price cuts granted in order to mitigate the impact of the sudden appreciation of the franc in January 2015 associated with the abandoning of the ceiling rate by the Swiss National Bank (BNS). House building is expected to continue bolstered by low interest rates. In addition, company investments are likely to remain at the current level, now that the uncertainty concerning new immigration legislation seems cleared. Foreign workers accounted for 30.5% of the active population in the 2nd quarter of 2016. At the same time, cheap credit and falling prices of imported goods could encourage automation, limiting the need for highly paid labour. Public spending on the other hand could slow at the same time with the savings being introduced at both the federal and cantonal levels. The positive contribution from foreign trade is expected to increase slightly. Adaptations to the appreciation of the franc are well under way, thanks both to improved productivity and cuts in production costs. Sales of pharmaceutical products (30% of the total) will continue growing. Chemicals (9%) will perform satisfactorily. The situation for precision instruments (8%), in particular medical, agri-food, machines (11%), electrical equipment (6%), paper, clothing and textiles will improve. Watchmaking (11%) will continue to suffer as the Chinese economy cools. In terms of services, finance will gain from its excellent reputation, as will commodity trading. Tourism and transport will continue to suffer from a relative disaffection on the part of European visitors because of the unfavourable exchange rate, although the top-end will remain attractive for its US customers. In domestic terms, retail will again face competition from supermarkets located in the border areas. In this context, there could be a gradual increase in the number of insolvencies (Coface estimate: +3%). The claims rate will remain low.

The country has a substantial current account surplus. It includes a surplus in the trade in goods (8.3% of GDP in 2015) and a surplus in services (2.6%), generated above all by financial services and licence and patent royalties, as well as significant transfers from workers abroad (4.6%, with 1% from foreign cross-border workers). And after deducting the trade in commodities (3.9%) and the foreign earnings of multinationals and wealthy non-residents domiciled in the country for tax reasons (estimated at 1.4%), the surplus is still 6.3%. Traditional exports have, on the whole, adapted fairly successfully to the sudden leap in the Swiss franc in January 2015 thanks to their strong non-price competitiveness linked with their sophistication, the reputation for quality and low labour factor costs (cf. pharmaceuticals: 4% of GDP but 0.8% of jobs). In addition, the accumulation of surpluses over the years has enabled the country to build up substantial assets abroad. With imported deflation, the upwards pressures on the franc and the low rate of growth, the central bank is expected to maintain its negative policy interest rate (-0.75% in November 2016). It will also continue its large-scale purchases of foreign assets for a total in excess of the gross domestic product. If it allowed the franc to rise further, the recovery would be chocked off.

In accordance with the budget rule, there is a structural equilibrium in the public accounts. If there is a significant deterioration in the economic situation, the federal and cantonal authorities, by a simple vote of the representative bodies, have the ability to trigger a major recovery budget. The public debt is held equally by the Federation and by the Cantons and Communes. The cost of this is extremely low with zero rates on 10 year bonds and negative rates for shorter maturities. The National Council and the Council of States are dominated by right and centre-right parties at least until the next elections in 2019. Managing the immigration issue and relations with the EU remain two key areas of concern. A constitutional initiative intended to reintroduce the ceilings and annual quotas for foreigners over three years was narrowly approved in a referendum in February 2014. These provisions are contrary to the free movement of people as agreed between the Confederation and the EU, the abandoning of which would bring an end to all the bilateral sectorial agreements between the two partners.Parliament has favoured ties with the EU by adopting a law at the end of 2016, requiring employers, when the unemployment rate in the sector or region is above average, to offer their jobs to the local unemployed before turning abroad, under penalty of CHF 40,000. The European Commission will have to validate the text.